COVID-19 Bird Strike Update #4
For quite a while now, I’ve been tracking the impact of the COVID-19 air traffic downturn on wildlife strike rates. Early warnings highlighted the potential for and early indications were that there was a risk of increased wildlife strike rates while the industry returned to the skies. Since then, a lot more research has been done and presented. I presented my full year 2020 findings at the Australian Aviation Wildlife Hazard Group’s (AAWHG) 2021 Webinar Series last October with the video going online last week.
Quick Preview
In my last update on this phenomenon, I noted that my analysis to date did not mesh well with some data presented by the FAA at the World Birdstrike Association webinar in early 2021. I refined my data in light of this and signed off the post by saying I was looking for a robust analysis tool to workout if the 2020 data really did exceed the historical, pre-COVID-19 trend.
I found my tool and set about applying it to the data. It was a specific time series analysis technique called Seasonal ARIMA. It involves a bunch of maths but, luckily, we have computers for that. In short, the technique allows one to “predict” what would have happened in 2020 if historical trends continued. I then compared the actual wildlife strike rate with the predicted model.
I explain it a little more in the presentation.
Other People’s Work
There have been plenty of people looking at this issue over the last couple of years and a few were highlighted in a recent story by the Wall Street Journal (available here on Fox Business for those without WSJ accounts).
Of particular interest in that report are the US stats that are slightly different to mine. I have seen the presentation on which they are based but I can’t find it on the web. So, I am reluctant to share it here without permission. It is a broadly similar technique to the one I use with slightly different data and much more experienced analysis. But I really liked the reference to this website and my earlier COVID-19 update :)
Getting Published
I’ve been “sitting” on this analysis for about six months as I have been trying to navigate the lovely world of formal academic publications. I’ve been through one major revision and am currently sitting at 80 days since re-submission. Peer review and approval is said to take between two and three months, so we should be getting close.
But with the AAWHG webinars going up, I thought I would share the presentation video here at least. I hope to be sharing the published paper with you soon. When that happens, I’ll do up some more graphics.
I’ve got a video ready to go too.
Header image: Asad Photo Maldives (via Pexels)
